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Displaying blog entries 31-36 of 36

Desperate Times Call For..Financial Trends in Calgary Real Estate Market

by Marvin and Deanna Nygaard

Financial Trends Affecting The Real Estate Market

Presented by Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS® of Keller Williams Realty South
We are now officially in uncharted territory!!

 

 

 

 

Desperate Times Call For...

 

We are now officially in uncharted territory. On Tuesday December 16, 2008  the US Federal Committee (FOMC) cut the Federal Funds Rate to a range between 0% and 0.25% – the lowest level ever.

The Fed does not normally announce a range for the overnight rate, but this time around they opted for the added flexibility of not specifying a unique number.

Prior to this announcement, the US overnight interest rate was 1.0%. Market pundits were unanimously calling for a rate cut, but many were just predicting a half-percentage point reduction to 0.5%. Instead, the FOMC surprised the market and in the foreseeable future the overnight rate will be at, or very close to, 0%.

This rate announcement sends a clear message to world markets that US monetary authorities are very pessimistic about the state of their economy.

The FOMC stated that since the last rate announcement on October 28:labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.”

The FOMC also indicated that inflation concerns have “diminished appreciably” and will continue to moderate in the future.

In the most striking paragraph of the press release, the Fed stated: weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time,” and the Fed “will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.”

 


Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS®
Keller Williams Realty South
#600, 11012 Macleod Trail S
Calgary, AB T2J 6A5
403-650-7171
http://www.getmoney2buy.com

Securities Regulation: We Wonder Why We Have A Crisis!

by Marvin and Deanna Nygaard

Financial Trends Affecting The Real Estate Market

Canada is in a unique situation in which regulation of the banking industry is done by the federal government, and regulation of securities dealers is done at the provincial level. This is likely a historical consequence as the financial industry had historically been broken up into pillars - with security dealers separate from banks. These pillars no longer exist and debate is currently underway as to the best way to regulate securities in Canada, especially after the merger of the Toronto and Montreal stock exchanges.

David Andrew Singer writes a very interesting account of the history of efforts to build an international framework for securities regulation in his book Regulating Capital: Setting Standards for the International Financial System. The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) was tasked with the goal of setting minimum standards for the prudent supervision of securities dealers world wide. The IOSCO failed to reach an agreement and efforts were abandoned by 1992.

However, regulators started to realize that international standards needed to be in place in the mid-80s with the dramatic increase in the operations of brokerage houses across national borders. In 1979 annual international securities transactions amounted to $73 billion; by 1990 that amount had risen to $1.5 trillion. An interesting motivating factor for the increase was the demise of the Bretton Woods (fixed exchange rate regime) and the increased desire of institutional investors to take advantage of international market movements. The task was facilitated by the rapid development of computers and telecommunications. It was the market crash of 1987 that the regulators realized the consequences of these massive international flows.

The UK was particularly hard hit by the 1987 crash which was due to the decision by the British government to privatize their stake in British Petroleum, worth approximately 7.25 billion pounds. The market crash caused many of the underwriters in the transaction to take substantial losses. The UK pushed hard for greater oversight but brokerage firms in the City faced ever increasing competition from US brokerage houses that were better capitalized and faced a different regulatory regime. The rules introduced in Europe and the UK focused on consolidated entities – much like in Canada – whereas in the US securities dealers had to comply with the Net Capital Rule, but this was not applied on a consolidated basis.

This regulatory difference gave the US dealers a comparative advantage. Derivatives became increasingly important in the financial world and US brokerage houses were able to set up subsidiaries that dealt in derivatives that were essentially unregulated, meaning they didn’t have to set aside any regulatory capital. The collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert and the junk bond market made the US reevaluate the oversight of brokerage firms – as Drexel moved much of their regulatory capital out of the regulated section of their firm and into the unregulated holding company – however it resulted only in increased disclosure requirements for securities firms.

The issue of consolidated reporting between the US and Europe emerged as an issue and the European Union passed a rule in 2004 allowing European regulators to oversee the risk of both investment banks and holding companies. The SEC, in response, allowed investment banks with $5 billion in capital or more to be regulated using internal models as consolidated entities – thus gaining an exemption from the EU regulatory requirements. An interesting result for firms electing to join the alternative regime was that under the new program investment banks would no longer be subject to the Net Capital Rule (a leverage of 12 to 1). The five banks that elected to switch: Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. Do you wonder why we now have a worldwide Banking and Stock Market Crisis!

by Will Van’t Veld  ATB Bank

 


Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS®
Keller Williams Realty South
#600, 11012 Macleod Trail S
Calgary, AB T2J 6A5
403-650-7171
http://www.getmoney2buy.com

When The US Sneezes Canda's Housing Market Gets A Cold

by Marvin and Deanna Nygaard

 

 

 

Calgary Housing Prices Slide

Prospective homebuyers in Calgary continue to enjoy lower prices and ample selection. Sellers, meanwhile, have to prepare themselves to keep their listings on the market for increasingly longer periods of time.

 

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, the median home price for the total Calgary MLS was $360,000 for the month of August, down from $370,000 in July. Inventory also fell slightly to 12,673 MLS listings compared to 13,551 in July.  The median price is the price point where half the homes sold were higher and half were lower. Tracking the median price is preferable to the average price because the latter can be skewed by the sale of very expensive homes.  The average days on the market (DOM) rose to 58 in August from 56 in July. A more striking comparison is the 2008 average DOM of 50 compared to 33 for 2007.

 

The Calgary Real Estate Board data is consistent with Statistics Canada data on building permits, as well as the CMHC housing starts data, that suggest the real estate market in Alberta continues to soften.  Housing is coming off an extremely strong period that began around 2003 and lasted until 2007. These price declines must be kept in context; no healthy housing market should see indefinite price increases.

 

With a provincial economy that is seeing some moderation after years of boom, we can expect to see more sideways movement in the Calgary housing market. That being said, income growth in the province is still rising at a fast pace, which should cushion the effect of moderating provincial output.

 

 


US Mortgage Foreclosures  at Record High

Woes in the American housing market have been making headline news recently, and now they’re really starting to show up in the economic data.  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported in the National Delinquency Survey that 1.19% of American homes were entering foreclosure, continuing an upward trend that began around the second quarter of 2006. This is nearly double the rate of 0.65% in the second quarter of 2007. The delinquency rate is a leading indicator of foreclosure rates. The delinquency rate (the percentage of loans that are at least one payment past due, but not including those already in foreclosure) reached 6.41% of all loans outstanding as of September

 

If there is a silver lining in these numbers, it’s that delinquencies and foreclosures are concentrated in a relatively small number of states. Losses are heaviest in the sunny vacation destination states such as Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. In fact, only eight states experienced foreclosure rates above the national average.

 

Delinquencies were also concentrated in - you guessed it – sub-prime loans. The delinquency rate for sub-prime loans was 18.67% compared to 3.93% for prime loans. Not only are problems concentrated geographically, they are also concentrated among low income Americans.

 

What does all this mean for Canada and Alberta? In general, housing price declines and foreclosure rates have not spilled across the border to nearly the same degree. Despite this, 86% of Alberta’s exports head south of the border. So, when the US starts to sneeze…

The Boom, Is Over - What Is It's Effect in Southern Alberta

by Marvin and Deanna Nygaard

Financial Trends Affecting The Real Estate Market

Presented by Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS® of Keller Williams Realty South
The Boo, Is Over - What Is It's Effect in Southern Alberta

 

 

 

Real Estate’s Boom's Effect In Southern Alberta

There’s been a lot of talk about Alberta’s real estate boom over the past few years. Now that some of the froth has come off the housing price frenzy in Edmonton and Calgary, it is interesting to step back and watch what’s been happening in other parts of the province. Real estate in the deep south of the province – specifically Lethbridge and Medicine Hat – has typically sold for prices lower than those in Calgary, Edmonton or Fort McMurray. But real estate prices in these two cities have also risen quite dramatically. What’s more, housing prices in the south have slowly been closing the gap with average prices elsewhere in the province.

 

Back in 1990, the average price of a home in Medicine Hat sold for $72,200, or about 64% of the provincial average. By the first quarter of 2008, houses in “The Hat” were going for a much higher $265,900, or about 73% of the provincial average. A very similar story can be told for Lethbridge. In 1990, houses in that city sold for 63% of the provincial average, rising to 68% by 2008. Medicine Hat and Lethbridge have not had the same population growth rates as have other medium-sized cities in the province (witness Red Deer).

 

Nonetheless, they offer very attractive lifestyles for those wanting to cash in on real estate holdings in the two large cities. That may be helping prop up demand, and thus price, in the south. Demand for real estate may also be somewhat related to demographic shifts. Both cities are surrounded by well-established agricultural lands. As more farm owners decide to lease their land to other operators (or simply retire altogether), the two cities are obvious choices for many who decide to “move into town” – and that town ain’t Calgary!

 

 

 

 



Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS®
Keller Williams Realty South
#600, 11012 Macleod Trail S
Calgary, AB T2J 6A5
403-650-7171
http://www.getmoney2buy.com

Financial Trends Affecting the Real Estate Market in Calgary, Alberta

by Marvin and Deanna Nygaard

Financial Trends Affecting The Real Estate Market

Presented by Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS® of Keller Williams Realty South
Personal Bankruptcy Well-contained But Inflation On the Rise

 

Personal Bankruptcy Well-contained In Alberta

Alberta households still seem to be doing a fairlygood job at managing their own finances, particularly when it comes to servicing their levels of debt. In April – the most recent month for which data is available – there were 458 claims of personal bankruptcy in Alberta.

 

And even while the total number of bankruptcies has been creeping up a touch over the past several months (it hit a low of only 293 in December), it does not seem to be moving much beyond the range of around 400 claims per month.

 

Strong employment and wage growth continue to support consumers and household finance in the province. While personal debt levels may be rising, the bank accounts and financial positions of many Albertans seem to be rising in tandem, making it possible to carry that growing debt burden and prevent bankruptcy.

 

But that could still change. Another reason why personal bankruptcies have been so well contained over the past year or two is the very low interest rate environment. If interest rates were to rise, the cost of carrying debt will rise too, increasing the strain on those consumers – especially ones who may be making only the minimum payments on their total debt.

 

With the Bank of Canada signaling that its cycle of interest rate cuts is over, we could be looking at higher interest rates by the time we reach the fall. And if the Bank of Canada raises its rates, other consumer lending rates would be quick to follow. How fast wages and employment in Alberta continue to grow – and if they can rise fast enough to offset the pinch of possibly higher interest rates – will

influence the number of bankruptcies in the future.

 

 

 

 

 


Inflation Heats Up

Bubbling price pressures from gasoline, certain food products, and transportation are rudely starting to make their presence felt in the pocket books of Albertans and Canadians. In May, the Consumer Price Index showed general prices in Alberta rose by 3.7%. That’s the second month in a row in which inflation has accelerated.

 

For Canada, consumer price increases accelerated for the second straight month in May to 2.2% The Bank of Canada’s core inflation index  rose 1.5% between May 2007 and May 2008. Alberta, which has had the highest rate of inflation in the country for the past few years, fell to #2 spot in May. Tiny Prince Edward Island suffered inflation of 4.1%. Gasoline prices were the primary driver of inflation in Alberta and across the country.

 

Today’s inflation report will bolster the Bank of Canada’s resolve to keep interest rates unchanged (as they did in a surprise move on June 10th).  The Bank may start raising interest rates.

 


 


Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS®
Keller Williams Realty South
#600, 11012 Macleod Trail S
Calgary, AB T2J 6A5
403-650-7171
http://www.getmoney2buy.com

Financial Trends Affecting the Real Estate Market in Calgary, Alberta

by Marvin and Deanna Nygaard

Financial Trends Affecting The Real Estate Market

Presented by Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS® of Keller Williams Realty South
High Inventory and Low Interest Rates Great For Calgary Buyers

 

Bank of Canada Drops a Bomb

Who ever said central bankers are boring?

 

In a surprising move, the Bank of Canada kept its lending rate unchanged at 3.0%. A consensus of economists had unanimously expected the Bank to continue easing monetary policy with a cut of 25 basis points (1/4 percentage point). It  is dealing with a Canadian economy that contracted in the first quarter, employment that is growing very weakly, and a US economy that is importing far less from Canadian exporters. If things don’t improve in the second quarter, we’ll be in a recession. Inflation jitters (mostly from energy and food prices) have the Bank worried about rising prices.

 

The Bank states: “If current levels of energy prices persist, total CPI inflation will rise above 3 per cent later this year. However, with the Canadian economy operating in excess supply (i.e., slumping economy,), core inflation is expected to remain below 2 per cent through 2009. Theyve found the spot where inflation is offset by softer growth. June 10t's announcement sends a signal that rate cuts are likely over for now. The Bank of Canada is now more squarely in line with central banks in Europe and the US where rate hikes are now expected later this year.

 

 

 

 

 


 Inventory of Unsold Homes Keeps Rising in Cowtown

Residential real estate in Calgary continues to paint a very confusing picture. On the positive side of the market, housing prices are stable and even inching up a bit. In May, the median sale price of all units sold was $381,000. There is no evidence of collapsing house prices. Stability is really the key word. The median price of single family detached homes in Calgary was $419,000; for condos it was $285,000.

 

The only category of sales to show an increase year-over-year were acreages surrounding the city. The median price for those properties was a whopping $855,000. That’s up from $780,000 a year ago.

 

The unsettling piece of data from Calgary Real Estate Board’s report for May was the number of unsold homes on the market. At the end of May, there were 14,960 homes. The inventory of unsold homes has risen very sharply over the last several months. This is more indicative of a somewhat over-built market, rather than a sign of ruinous economic times that sometimes forces people to sell their homes and move.

 

Calgary’s housing market continues to offer advantages for both buyers and sellers. Buyers have the luxury of lots of selection on the market. The selling time on the market has lengthened, so there is no pressure to “hurry-upand- buy.” Sellers are also enjoying stable prices.

 

 


 


Marvin & Deanna Nygaard, REALTORS®
Keller Williams Realty South
#600, 11012 Macleod Trail S
Calgary, AB T2J 6A5
403-650-7171
http://www.getmoney2buy.com

Displaying blog entries 31-36 of 36

Contact Information

Photo of Marvin Nygaard and Associates Real Estate
Marvin Nygaard and Associates
RE/MAX Real Estate (Mountain View)
222, 4625 Varsity Drive NW
Calgary AB T3A 0Z9
Cell: 403-650-7171